Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 2.535434 3.459562 4.769497 6.827407 1.010794e+01 1.538037e+01 2.506335e+01
2025-02-23 1.540311 2.396051 3.841905 6.654748 1.252737e+01 2.578580e+01 6.443048e+01
2025-03-02 0.984056 1.683517 3.032290 6.151401 1.441854e+01 4.060987e+01 1.733743e+02
2025-03-09 0.733829 1.375152 2.784535 6.696381 2.035626e+01 8.816528e+01 9.825045e+02
2025-03-16 0.557572 1.127889 2.531518 7.142515 2.845935e+01 2.105639e+02 1.519263e+04
2025-03-23 0.444588 0.965262 2.392706 7.954795 4.320017e+01 6.882252e+02 7.828095e+09
2025-03-30 0.358812 0.827918 2.242757 8.713948 6.581483e+01 3.152717e+03 NaN
2025-04-06 0.278701 0.669820 1.929106 8.392725 8.265439e+01 1.395733e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 0.216776 0.536916 1.619506 7.698258 9.501933e+01 7.911504e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 0.183016 0.472278 1.519229 8.209400 1.451899e+02 8.884192e+07 NaN
2025-04-27 0.161629 0.436558 1.511500 9.527954 2.764335e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.144775 0.408525 1.520862 11.256668 6.017809e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.125013 0.364823 1.438018 12.157585 1.192071e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.104925 0.312374 1.274524 11.712381 1.787725e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.087374 0.263335 1.097733 10.636925 2.220435e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.077907 0.241545 1.058670 11.655920 5.915310e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.069449 0.220611 1.010168 12.490545 1.805341e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.063171 0.206182 0.992203 14.075359 1.209229e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.057458 0.192048 0.966102 15.576662 2.666174e+06 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.050582 0.170698 0.874415 14.878992 3.092898e+07 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.044199 0.149746 0.772826 13.448630 1.619786e+08 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.040578 0.139960 0.747473 14.448364 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.038267 0.135325 0.758539 17.114912 NaN NaN NaN